The Uncertain Ammonia Industry, Present and Future

Layers of uncertainty around new ammonia markets and the ability of new projects to scale production cast doubt over the massive ammonia buildout planned for the US, according to a new report from the Ohio River Valley Institute.

A surge of more than 37 proposed projects across the country, fueled by tax credits earmarked in the Inflation Reduction Act, stands to increase domestic ammonia production by over 350% if projects are built and operated at full capacity.

But bullish demand growth forecasts rely on new markets and technologies that remain “nascent and dubious,” explained report author and ORVI Research Fellow Zane Gustafson.

“Soaring projections of ammonia demand growth in emerging markets for maritime fuel and as a carrier for hydrogen transportation are likely overinflated and, at the least, could take many years to materialize.”

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